DOW sneezes, the entire world catches the Cold



KLSE is about to face off with twin headwinds:-

1st the endless GE 13 uncertainty both before n after effects.
And the present imminent syndrome of  DOW sneezes, the entire world catches the Cold.

Extra caution should be highlighted now.

The global stock mkt trend, lead by Dow will always take centre stage. 
Dow or S&P 500 indices r hitting full 4 years high without a meaningful deep drawn correction.

There is an early sign of Investment Clock rotating to forex again.
News has it that George S. has already pocketed US$ 1 billion n still counting. 
He has made the 1st cut above on Yen n moving fast to Pound.

The epicentre is showing up in the appreciation of US$ Vs Yen n Pound:

13 Nov 2012     79.55  Yen/US$
20 Feb 2013     93.55      "             Up 17.6%

02 Jan 2013      0.615   Pound/US$
20 Feb 2013      0.657          "        Up  6.9%

There is also other powerful hedge fund manager like D Einhorn acting in the same concert. 
Would this eventually balloon into a full scale financial tsunami ?

That's watch n monitor now how Dow will react n behave in the immediate 2-3 weeks time horizon.

In the last 4 weeks, it was so easy for KLCI to drop 20 to 40 points a day, seems like stepping into quicksand. 

Why so many FA professionals refuse to sell even knowing the probability is swinging towards pureBear ? 

Seriously, Good simple TA knowledge can help n is much easier to master ! 

If u can use so much resources to master FA, I strongly believe the same effort on TA n QA will definitely make one very successful n at the same time have much more quality time to enjoy life to the fullest...

These r words I remember since some 20 years ago from a top CEO of Corporate Singapore who said, 

" In good times prepare for bad times n 
  In bad times prepare for good times " 

He went on to lecture - Every individual stock investor or trader has to experience at least a complete 12 years stock mkt cycle. 
If one learns well in this 12 years period, one can expect to excel for the next maximum of 2 to 3 cycles ONLY in life.  A complete round cycle of primary waves stretches up to 12 years, + - 2 years deviation. 

HOW TO FLY A STOCK SUCCESSFULLY

Richard Wyckoff, the legendary trader who in the 1930s wrote a manifesto that gained him a cult following on Wall Street even in today's high tech investment world. 

Typical 'Goreng' Operation

Let's look at an example of a typical market operation. Say a stock is trading in the $30-35 range and the pro sees it going to $60 soon...

He's trying to pick up 500,000 shares, but it's too much, so he starts by taking as much as he can between $30 and $35.
When it gets back to the top of that range, he forces the price back down so he can pick up more shares for cheaper.

Then he forces the price down to around 30 by offering large amounts of stock and inducing floor traders and other people to sell their long holdings or go short because the stock looks weak. By putting the price down, he may sell 100,000 shares and buy 200,000; hence he has 100,000 shares long at the lower prices of his range of accumulation.

"By keeping the stock low and depressed, he discourages other people from buying it and induces more short selling. He may, by various means, spread bearish reports on the stock. All this helps him to buy. When he is thus buying and selling to accumulate, he necessarily causes the price to move up and down, forming the familiar trading ranges, or congestion areas, which appear frequently on figure charts."

Using this method, the pro will accumulate a large enough position to effectively remove almost ALL would-be sellers from the market.

At New High

"Finally he completes his line. The stock now stands at 35, and, as he has absorbed 500,000 shares below that figure and other operators have observed his accumulation and have taken on considerable lines for themselves, the floating supply of the stock below 35 is greatly reduced. 
At 36 = the new high, the stock is prepared for the 'mark-up to fly to the sky'. It is ready to go up as soon as he is willing to allow it."
Then, he starts driving the price up to $60 by buying more shares – and he really ramps it up toward the end to coincide with the "good news" he is expecting in a few days' time.
Now, the pro has accumulated a huge position in the stock, and he needs to find someone to sell it to at $60. By now, people have seen the surge, and they think something's coming.

"The process of distributing calls for much publicity so that the attention of the public will be attracted to the stock. The rise to 50 started a whole crop of rumors. Brokers who are close to the bankers or the management of the company have been trying to find out what is going on to make the stock so strong.

"Insiders have hinted vaguely that 'something good is coming out,' and without knowing just what this expected favorable news is, the brokers have put their clients into it. Considerable outside public following has been gained during the rise. The market for the stock is broadening."

Then, the news hits, and the pro can instantly unload 200-300k shares as people rush in to buy.

To finish unwinding his position, the pro does the exact same thing he did at the bottom – he works that stock up and down in a range until he's sold it all...

"After this the price may recede a few points, but he, having sold a large part of his line, is willing to take a small percentage of it back at 57 to 56, and after this has been accomplished, and the activity has quieted down, he will mark the price up to 60 or 61 again.

"At that point he either turns seller, and markets the balance of his stock on the way down; or he works it up and down in a range of a few points from the top, till he has completed his selling."

Now, the stock is in "weak hands" – everyone bought it on bullish news after a UP + $30 rally.

"The operator has now disposed of his entire line and as the news, is now known to the public and many people have bought and thus taken the stock off his hands, the stock may be regarded as technically in a weak position, for it is in what is called 'weak hands.' By this I mean it is held mostly by those who have bought at the top of a 30 point rise, when the news was bullish; most of these purchases being made on margin, the holders can be shaken out or tired out."

Turns Shortist

So, it's time to go short at $60! The pro can initiate a big short position, but fool people by putting on good-sized buy orders at $56, supporting the stock and inducing people to keep buying.


"The operator now sees a chance to make a turn on the short side, so while the market is in this range of say 56 to 60, and after he has completed selling his long line, he sells short, say 250,000 shares.

"In doing this he makes the stock swing back and forth over this range, keeping good-sized supporting orders in around 56 to fool the floor traders, the specialists and the public, who see on the floor and on the tape evidence of his support on the reactions. Thus they are led to believe the stock is going still higher."

Then, he pulls out the rug – canceling all his buy orders and leading a raid on the stock. That's how it's done – played in both directions.

"When the operator has sold all of his 250,000 shares short, he cancels all of his buying orders. The specialist in the stock then tells some of the more important floor traders that the stock is in a weak technical position and that there is no support for the next 8 or 10 points and they all get together and raid it down to 50, at which point the operator covers his shorts."

REFERENCE

His 1931 book, "The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks – A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique," is somewhat difficult to find these days (not impossible), but even in 2013, hedge fund managers still swear by it.

One of the key takeaways from the book is that if you want to succeed, you have to learn to recognize the professionals- the Smart Money and understand what they are doing. That's what those who follow Wyckoff do — they watch the big operators.

Wyckoff walks us through the process of how a big operator will manipulate a stock up or down — so that next time one sees it unfolding on the screen before his or her own eyes, he or she can react accordingly.

First, some context: trading is a lot like any other merchandising business, and liquidity is important.

Wyckoff writes, "When you have learned to take a wholly impartial viewpoint, unbiased by news, gossip, opinions and your own prejudices, you will realize that the stock market is like any other merchandising business.

"Those who understand it buy only when prices are low with the idea of selling when they are high; and they operate only in the stocks or commodities which they can move best so they may secure the highest possible rate of turnover of inventories."

It takes a while for a pro to accumulate a position in advance of a big move – buying too many shares at once would cause the price to rise too quickly.

"The preparation of an important move in the market takes a considerable time. A large operator or investor acting singly cannot often, in a single day's session, buy 250,000 to 500,000 shares of stock without putting the price up too much. Instead, he takes days, weeks or months in which to accumulate his line in one or many stocks."
Instead, here's how he sets it up: first, he'll "shake out" the little guys by forcing the stock lower in order to get a better price.

He prefers to do this while the market is weak, dull, inactive and depressed. To the extent that they are able, he, and the other interests with whom he works, bring about the very conditions which are most favorable for accumulation of stocks at low prices...
"When he wishes to accumulate a line, he raids the market for that stock, makes it look very weak, and gives it the appearance of heavy liquidation by sending in selling orders through a great number of brokers."

Then, he will try to time the top of his planned price rise with some "good news" about the stock he may already know about.

Remember the saying, "Buy the rumor, sell the news"?

You have often noticed that a stock will sell at the highest price for many months on the very day when a stock dividend, or some very bullish news, appears in print. This is not mere accident.

The whole move is manufactured. Its purpose is to make money for inside interests — those who are operating in the stock in a large way. And this can only be done by fooling the public, or by inducing the public to fool themselves."

Now we know the methodology to 'goreng'.

Can we gang up to do it together one day ?

Have a good n deep feeling for prices in the above case study in
Zone 1. at $30 to 35 = struggling n tricky n
Zone 2. > $35/36 = will fly exponentially to $60.

Every aeroplane needs a good qualified pilot to fly high.
Likewise every stock needs a stock operator - the Smart Money to 'goreng' up to the blue sky !

Without pilot n stock operator, planes n stocks will stay grounded perpetually.

Strategically we will wait at $35/36. On that special moment with the final price action confirmation, we must take Risk to decisively load up big n furious on that stock.
Always be mindful to protect the downside, while we target our high speed profit towards $60 on next news flow...

Good to spend time to build up skill n talent this way. It's much easier n more concrete than all the complicated ever changing FA #s.

In a bull run, it is not surprising to see some crap stocks outperforming much more than the so-called good FA stocks.
Certainly this brings home a strong point, Right ?

We shall always do n solve from " 1st Principle ". U will get me there.

19/02/2013 10:07

Amazing 3-times-velocity ETF



S&P 500 n DJIA indices both opened gap down n closed much lower today, Feb 4th, 2013.
There is a high probability that the uptrend since Nov 16th, 2012 has already run its full course. So long today's gap down vacuum is not filled out within the next few weeks, more selling will ensues.

Every time Dow Jones wave turned purebear, it will cause all stock mkts in the entire world to follow suit. DJIA or S&P 500 truly holds the trump card in stock mkt direction.

Is it the right time now to start 'play-play' with the bear ?
SPXU, in at US$ 31.65/70 last Friday.

The North American mkt is amazing. They have lots of financial engineers who always have capability to design financial products of various complexity ahead of time. I chanced upon these 3-times-velocity ETFs 16 months ago. 
They r like regular ETFs with a special feature of 3 times the speed of index movement.

If S&P 500 index is up 10%, then its 3X bull ETF i.e. UPRO will go up 30%.
If it is down 10%, the 3X bear ETF, SPXU has to move up about 30%.

The popular n active 3X Bull/Bear ETF pairs r as follows :-

INDICES      BULL    BEAR
S&P 500       UPRO    SPXU
DOW           UDOW   SDOW
NASDAQ       TQQQ    SQQQ    
FINANCE       FAS       FAZ
SMALL CAP    TNA      TZA
ENERGY        ERX      ERY
CHINA          YINN     YANG
VIX                          VXX = 2x
                              TVIX = 3x

VIX is fearful. VXX n TVIX move in multiples will be more scary.
These r fantastic financial instruments where u can go full time in either way the mkt moves. No stock selection n financial analysis is required. 
Just the RIGHT TIMING in the RIGHT Mkt Direction or go with the mood of the mkt.

Do not ever touch these ETFs unless u r the real McCoy. 

Have a good look at them using this real-time Free stock chart provider,

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

This is the best real-time stock charts for all North American stocks n derivatives listed on all exchanges in USA n Canada I have seen n it is absolutely Free of charge.